The 1999 and 2025 Rhyme
[…] In psychology, there are two main forms of rejection (duration and magnitude). For those of us who know history and appreciate the rhymes that Twain taught us, this mania has already lasted longer (duration) and been more all-encompassing than the DotCom bubble (magnitude). It has taken the S&P 500 Index to a more expensive position relative to most of the respected valuation metrics (Schiller CAPE, Buffett’s stock market indicator, US household equities as a percentage of US financial assets), to name a few. And anyone who stays late at this party could run the risk that Cinderella took at the ball. Warren Buffett said, “At midnight, everything is going to turn to pumpkins and mice! But the trouble is, there are no clocks on the wall.” […]
