Author: Cole Smead, CFA

The investors of Smead Capital Management believe, which we count ourselves among, that energy stock valuations in the stock market have become too depressed. Mr. Market gets scared, as he does from time to time. This can go on for a while, but we have seen a couple of private transactions in two different parts of North America energy markets that explain how attractive the pricing is for the assets that Mr. Market could own. […]

We want to ensure our investors know that we are standing side-by-side with them, as the stock market can do fairly illogical things from time to time. We’d like to discuss our three worst-performing securities in the US portfolio to help our investors understand why we are sitting on our hands and allowing our discipline to proceed. We are pounding the table at the opportunity within our grasp and wish to assure investors that we like what these circumstances are giving us. We believe they will guide us toward the successful outcomes that we have seen time and time again. […]

When you grow up with a father who worked in the brokerage business, you hear a lot of stories. The especially interesting ones are those about the investment business in the 1980s. Many times, my dad, Bill, has told me about Jack McCarthy, who ran the Affiliated Fund at Lord Abbett & Co. in the 1980s. At that time, the podcast of the era was sending a recorded tape of your thoughts to get the word out to investors. In 1984, Jack’s wisdom and recommendation were timely. […]

[…] We believe the market has adapted to quality. Even the value players have adapted and most of them have attached quality to their marketing materials. The style has been adapted and we believe the next era won’t reward quality as it has over the recent past. In markets, we believe the winning hand moves around the table just as it does in poker. Luckily Buffett continues to adapt his play lately by selling Apple and buying OXY. The way we see it, the future winning hands look cheaper and more cyclical, but provide attractive returns on capital for the business in his view and in ours.

As the investors of Smead Capital Management know, we focus on the shareholder friendliness of the businesses we analyze because we believe it can differentiate their long-term returns. Warren Buffett has said, “Own a business a five-year-old can run. Just in case one does!” In today’s piece, we would like to share our framework of thinking about capital allocation and shareholder friendliness through an example that we have lost money on so far. […]

[…] We should want customers of the investment industry to get good outcomes. Good outcomes come from good processes and aligned incentives. With US markets being the rage of the investment world, we believe that the professionals in our industry own a different portfolio than they recommend to their customers. In other words, they may get a different outcome than their customers. Regulation will never fix ethical issues. […]

Many investors are bullish, or not fearful, of the future of stock returns. At Smead Capital Management, we continue to explain to our investors how poor the outcomes will be. Some ask when this view will change. To quote Keynes, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” The facts are not changing. Instead, we continue to find mountain evidence of the danger present. In this piece, we will explain an analogous instance from the past. […]

William Thorndike’s book “The Outsiders” has been considered a classic for some time now. His story teaches readers about the business performance of Henry Singleton, Katherine Graham, John Malone and Daniel Burke. These are people who weren’t household names like Jack Welch, but produced results that would make any investors feel jealous of the success they had. At a moment like today where the world seems vastly different than where we have been for much of the last decade, we would like to use this piece as a way to remind ourselves where “The Outsiders” may sit and provide an example of ones that we’ve witnessed, but others don’t recognize. […]

We consider Ben Bernanke to be the father of 21st-century central bank policy. His work in dealing with the credit crisis in 2008-2009 was just the right policy at that time. The problem for economists is that they tend to fight the last war. The Great Financial Crisis was an economic problem where demand was dropping off from credit evaporating. The government tried to spend money to replace this destruction, but couldn’t politically equal the loss of economic output. The central banks could only pray that the most accommodative monetary policy would ease the fiscal belt that wasn’t loosening at that time. This was the last war for economists and has dominated economic research. Like anchoring or recency bias would tell us, this may have little to do with the problems in our future. […]

C.S. Lewis coined the term ‘chronological snobbery’. According to Lewis, the definition of chronological snobbery is “the uncritical acceptance of the intellectual climate of our own age and the assumption that whatever has gone out of date is on that count discredited.” In our minds, it is how humans undercut the wisdom of a prior time by assuming that we are so much more advanced in our current day. […]