Category: Quarterly Newsletters

[…] Investors and management teams often forget that the stock market isn’t a game of you versus them. It’s a game of you versus you. Mr. Market comes to you every day with a price for each company. Sometimes he’s depressed and scared. Sometimes he’s excited and euphoric, as we see among big US stocks. Mr. Market is not there to instruct you. His manic performance is something you can take advantage of or not. It really depends on how you seek to exploit him. […]

[…] Back in 2012, our portfolio traded at 12-times profits versus 14-times for the S&P 500 Index. The spread allowed us to compete very favorably with the S&P 500 Index in an era that has left stock pickers and value people in either a graveyard or in the dump. When the weighing machine kicks into gear and the stock market reestablishes “reasonableness,” we like our position in the marketplace.

For better or for worse, we at Smead Capital Management have very long memories. One of our favorite pinnacles of confidence is the financial euphoria in 2011 surrounding the Brazil-Russia-India-China (BRIC) trade. China’s command economy was growing 10% per year and helping to create momentum, which grabbed hold of the economies of nearby countries, as well as the companies and countries providing natural resources. It also captivated U.S. investors as they poured money into funds which gave them access to the momentum stocks. […]

The Federal Reserve Board reported its most recent Z-1 on household assets. It revealed that households directly own 27% of their assets in common stock and indirectly own 13% through funds/ETFs/401ks. They also have 14% of their household assets in defined benefit programs, which are currently 50% invested in common stocks. Add it all up, and you get 47% of household assets held directly and indirectly in common stock. […]

As the investors of the strategy look back at the first half of 2024, we believe it is important to understand where we sit and what our edge as investors is. With the barrage of news and noise today, we want to focus in on how we can take advantage of the markets. […]

There are four main educational disciplines that are important to us in the investment process. We believe investors need to understand economics, the history of the stock market, the mathematics of investing and the psychology of investing. At the end of the first quarter of 2024, we’d like to expound on the psychology of today’s U.S. stock market. […]

As we finish the first quarter of 2024 and look ahead, global stock investors are looking for lower short-term rates from central banks. The question remains whether they will get them. Looking back since the beginning of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve Board and its Fed futures market have been bad predictors of central bank policy. This debate has been better served in the psychological or intellectual realm. In this letter, we would like to explain part of the reason why we think it will be tougher to tackle inflation and why we have to deal with Higher Natural Rates. […]

As we end 2023, the world looks very different than it did a few years ago. The one thing inevitable in life is change. As investors, we are required to spend a lifetime of learning. One of the things we should recognize over time is how to take advantage of change. In this shareholder letter, we hope to explain current phenomena that weren’t predicted or present just a few years ago. We hope that reminding ourselves of this will bring more clarity to the opportunities for investors ahead. […]

[…] If there was a Coast Guard for the U.S. stock market, we believe they would be issuing a warning to owners of the S&P 500 Index and popular common stocks. Let us share the data that the stock market Coast Guard would use to urge caution. […]

The strangest thing transpiring in the first nine months of 2023 is the level of short and long-term rates versus the long-term optimism of passive US stock market owners. As we write this, the 30-year Treasury is hitting 5% and US stock investors have not gone into a general panic. The bond market is feeling very uncomfortable, but bonds lose with inflation, right? […]