Our Advice
Our company understands how frustrating and illogical the stock market can be. We have been involved in stock markets for 40 years and had success despite these shortcomings. Through our missives, quarterly newsletters and appearances in the media, we provide advice on how to avoid stock market failure.
Our Advice
DXYZ: An Old Form of Ignorance
Many investors are bullish, or not fearful, of the future of stock returns. At Smead Capital Management, we continue to explain to our investors how poor the outcomes will be. Some ask when this view will change. To quote Keynes, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” The facts are not changing. Instead, we continue to find mountain evidence of the danger present. In this piece, we will explain an analogous instance from the past. [...]
⟶ Keep Reading1Q24 U.S. Value Strategy Newsletter: Common Stock Psychology Matters
There are four main educational disciplines that are important to us in the investment process. We believe investors need to understand economics, the history of the stock market, the mathematics of investing and the psychology of investing. At the end of the first quarter of 2024, we’d like to expound on the psychology of today's U.S. stock market. [...]
⟶ Keep Reading1Q24 International Value Strategy Newsletter: Higher Natural Rates
As we finish the first quarter of 2024 and look ahead, global stock investors are looking for lower short-term rates from central banks. The question remains whether they will get them. Looking back since the beginning of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve Board and its Fed futures market have been bad predictors of central bank policy. This debate has been better served in the psychological or intellectual realm. In this letter, we would like to explain part of the reason why we think it will be tougher to tackle inflation and why we have to deal with Higher Natural Rates. [...]
⟶ Keep ReadingBloomberg Markets: Bill Smead on Bank Stocks and Inflation
Bloomberg Markets 4/12/2024 For more information go to www.bloomberg.com. The information contained in this article represents SCM’s opinions, and should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past […]
⟶ Keep ReadingHit Them Where They Ain’t
[...] As value investors, we go into companies that are out of favor but have characteristics that could lead us to multi-year winners. Our best stocks were found in the holes in the other portfolio manager’s defenses. As we watched a .190 hitter, Kyle Schwarber, bat leadoff for the Phillies in the playoffs last year, purists like us yearn to see Rod Carew and Tony Gwynn again. Our stock picking discipline (our stock market sabermetrics) tells us that growth stock investing is too popular and is about to enter a “dead ball” era of stock performance.
⟶ Keep ReadingSaved by Zero
[...] The U.S. Federal Government has set a net zero carbon goal by 2050. Tremendous resources have been applied with borrowed money to fund these goals and subsidize money-losing green investments. After pouring money into green investments, investors are wisely fleeing the fantasies associated with the environmental movement’s agenda. Are we really more together? [...]
⟶ Keep ReadingLooking for the Outsiders
William Thorndike’s book "The Outsiders" has been considered a classic for some time now. His story teaches readers about the business performance of Henry Singleton, Katherine Graham, John Malone and Daniel Burke. These are people who weren’t household names like Jack Welch, but produced results that would make any investors feel jealous of the success they had. At a moment like today where the world seems vastly different than where we have been for much of the last decade, we would like to use this piece as a way to remind ourselves where "The Outsiders" may sit and provide an example of ones that we’ve witnessed, but others don’t recognize. [...]
⟶ Keep ReadingLonely Contrarian Divergence
[...] At Smead Capital Management, prioritizing independent research is not only integral to our evolution as investors but also reflects our commitment to those on whose behalf we invest. Being different is inherently uncomfortable in every possible way, and although it doesn’t guarantee superior returns, we consider it a prerequisite for potential outperformance. As Marks put it, "The real question is whether you dare to do the things that are necessary in order to be great. Are you willing to be different, and are you willing to be wrong? In order to have a chance at great results, you have to be open to being both. [...]
⟶ Keep ReadingDXYZ: An Old Form of Ignorance
Many investors are bullish, or not fearful, of the future of stock returns. At Smead Capital Management, we continue to explain to our investors how poor the outcomes will be. Some ask when...
⟶ Keep Reading1Q24 U.S. Value Strategy Newsletter: Common Stock Psychology Matters
There are four main educational disciplines that are important to us in the investment process. We believe investors need to understand economics, the history of the stock market, the mathematics of investing and...
⟶ Keep Reading1Q24 International Value Strategy Newsletter: Higher Natural Rates
As we finish the first quarter of 2024 and look ahead, global stock investors are looking for lower short-term rates from central banks. The question remains whether they will get them. Looking back...
⟶ Keep ReadingBloomberg Markets: Bill Smead on Bank Stocks and Inflation
Bloomberg Markets 4/12/2024 For more information go to www.bloomberg.com. The information contained in this article represents SCM’s opinions, and should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past […]
⟶ Keep ReadingHit Them Where They Ain’t
[...] As value investors, we go into companies that are out of favor but have characteristics that could lead us to multi-year winners. Our best stocks were found in the holes in the...
⟶ Keep ReadingSaved by Zero
[...] The U.S. Federal Government has set a net zero carbon goal by 2050. Tremendous resources have been applied with borrowed money to fund these goals and subsidize money-losing green investments. After pouring...
⟶ Keep ReadingLooking for the Outsiders
William Thorndike’s book "The Outsiders" has been considered a classic for some time now. His story teaches readers about the business performance of Henry Singleton, Katherine Graham, John Malone and Daniel Burke. These...
⟶ Keep ReadingLonely Contrarian Divergence
[...] At Smead Capital Management, prioritizing independent research is not only integral to our evolution as investors but also reflects our commitment to those on whose behalf we invest. Being different is inherently...
⟶ Keep Reading
