China devalues, markets pull back Power Lunch hosted by Brian Sullivan and Melissa Lee For more information go to www.cnbc.com. The information contained in this tv appearance represents SCM’s opinions, and should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee
With Beijing being selected to host the 2022 Winter Olympics, we at Smead Capital took a moment to reflect on China. We concluded that posturing against China’s attempt to defy business cycles could be one of the best decisions we have made and could be the gift that keeps on giving. Warren Buffett once observed that you get to make approximately 20 major business decisions in your life. As long-duration common stock pickers, we think what you avoid can be just as important as what you select. In this missive we will share why we tend to avoid companies with major exposure to China, and why that could be a good thing for stock-pickers like ourselves.
Oil’s plunge negative long-term: Pro Closing Bell hosted Kelly Evans and Bill Griffeth The information contained in this tv appearance represents SCM’s opinions, and should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The securities
China opens its stock markets to the west, but caution is in order By Kira Brecht For more information go to www.theguardian.com. The information contained in this article represents SCM’s opinions, and should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is
In our business, we like to say that insider transactions never lie. For this reason, one of our eight criteria for selecting common stocks is strong insider ownership, preferably with recent purchases. Additionally, as contrarians, we want to make our original purchases in a business at a time when most investors are scared to buy for one reason or another. When we see officers, directors and substantial existing shareholders of a business buying at prices which are temporarily depressed, we raise our confidence in the long-term future of a business.
The Hays Advantage Hosted by Kathleen Hays and Vonnie Quinn
At Smead Capital Management, we believe the interest on September 18th in emerging markets, oil and gold are the last gasps of a dying trend. Our discipline demands that you must avoid popular investments and completely avoid investments attached to a perceived “new era.” We argue that the international investment markets reaction to Bernanke’s reprieve on September 18th is proof of a vision we have of the future. We believe that the easy money policies practiced by the Fed have both laid the groundwork for the US to rebound and have simultaneously allowed a dramatically over-cooked trend to continue long after it should have ended. We believe that our easy money in the US has allowed the day of reckoning for the “global synchronized trade” to be pushed back in the same way that the Y2k rollover date elongated the tech bubble in 1999-2000.
Can Caterpillar Claw Its Way Back? By Johanna Bennett For more information go to www.barrons.com. The information contained in this article represents SCM’s opinions, and should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The securities
Many times in my 32-year career people ask me to comment on whether an established trend for a popular investment will stay intact. The most recent example was last year (2012) when our firm was asked on numerous occasions to comment on the stock of Apple. My answer is always the same. We don’t know when the hot streak will end for the popular investment and we don’t feel comfortable with popular securities.
Warren Buffett describes the stock market’s purpose as being “a wonderfully efficient mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient”. We are reminded of this by a series of news reports and commentaries on subjects greatly influenced by basic economics. In today’s missive, we consider what the law of supply and demand says about China, oil, and housing in the USA.
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