Author: Smead Capital Management

There are four main educational disciplines that are important to us in the investment process. We believe investors need to understand economics, the history of the stock market, the mathematics of investing and the psychology of investing. At the end of the first quarter of 2024, we’d like to expound on the psychology of today’s U.S. stock market. […]

As we finish the first quarter of 2024 and look ahead, global stock investors are looking for lower short-term rates from central banks. The question remains whether they will get them. Looking back since the beginning of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve Board and its Fed futures market have been bad predictors of central bank policy. This debate has been better served in the psychological or intellectual realm. In this letter, we would like to explain part of the reason why we think it will be tougher to tackle inflation and why we have to deal with Higher Natural Rates. […]

As we end 2023, the world looks very different than it did a few years ago. The one thing inevitable in life is change. As investors, we are required to spend a lifetime of learning. One of the things we should recognize over time is how to take advantage of change. In this shareholder letter, we hope to explain current phenomena that weren’t predicted or present just a few years ago. We hope that reminding ourselves of this will bring more clarity to the opportunities for investors ahead. […]

[…] If there was a Coast Guard for the U.S. stock market, we believe they would be issuing a warning to owners of the S&P 500 Index and popular common stocks. Let us share the data that the stock market Coast Guard would use to urge caution. […]