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The Dimon Dilemma: Who Could Replace Him? By David Benoit For more information go to www.blogs.wsj.com. The information contained in this article represents SCM’s opinions, and should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The
Merck to Buy Back $5 Billion of Its Shares From Goldman By Shannon Pettypiece For more information go to www.bloomberg.com. The information contained in this article represents SCM’s opinions, and should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee
Shareholders and Analysts React to J.P. Morgan Annual Meeting By Matthias Rieker and David Benoit For more information go to www.blogs.wsj.com. The information contained in this article represents SCM’s opinions, and should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no
The information contained in this tv appearance represents SCM’s opinions, and should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The securities identified and described in this tv appearance do not represent all of the securities
We returned recently from the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Conference. The most exciting and profound comment to us was what Warren Buffett said about the unprecedented actions the last three years by the Federal Reserve Board. Buffett was asked about the risks of the Federal Reserve’s current plan to buy Treasuries to keep interest rates very low. Buffett said he has faith in Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke, but did acknowledge that it will be a “shot heard round the world” as soon as it looks like the Fed’s Treasury buying plan winds down. At Smead Capital Management, we have been thinking for over one year about the ramifications of the open market setting short-term interest rates and the Federal Reserve Board beginning to reverse their “quantitative easing”. We looked closely at the winners and losers from the current policy and it brought us to today’s key question. What if Yen weakness/Dollar strength is already the “shot heard around the world” and most market participants are missing this fact?
In the summer of 2009, I was a regular guest on CNBC shows like “Larry Kudlow”. We believe we were invited to participate in those panel discussions because we were the token “bull” in the conversation and I am obnoxious enough to state my piece against significant mental and verbal opposition. The US stock market had bottomed in March of 2009 and rallied explosively into the late spring and early summer. We felt that the March lows and big first move of the bull market were similar to the move the US stock market made in August of 1982. However, the choruses of experts were screaming that we were in a “bear market rally” and that only fools would buy stocks at those “inflated” prices. The wide-spread consensus back then appeared to be that that the rally was only temporary. We believe the psychology of that group think was a great predictor of what has come to pass.
Downton Abbey is a Masterpiece Theatre show on PBS which has taken US television viewers by storm. It is the story of an aristocratic family in England which perpetuates a dynasty in a small town through the operation of a huge estate. Devotion to this estate and huge family home are accomplished by employing a small army of servants, who maintain the home and the aristocrats. We believe there are strong parallels between what goes on at Downton and what has been going on in the US stock market since 2009. We also see this as a recurring theme for the next 5 to 7 years.
Buffett trades warrants for smaller stake in Goldman By Ben Berkowitz For more information go to www.reuters.com. The information contained in this article represents SCM’s opinions, and should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Home Depot to Lowe’s Win as $40,000 Wine Cellars Return By Christ Burritt For more information go to www.bloomberg.com. The information contained in this article represents SCM’s opinions, and should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of
In the March 9, 2013 issue of Barron’s, writer Jonathon Laing wrote an excellent piece about Howard Marks. This article provides the base from which we can discuss the main components of investment portfolio composition. These components are information, analysis of information, and decisions made from information and analysis. In doing so, we will bring to light why we believe today’s best opportunity is in long-duration common stock investing.
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