Category: Missives

Long term success in common stock ownership is much more about patience and discipline than it is about mathematics. There is no better arena for discussing this truism than in how investors measure risk. It is the opinion of our firm that measuring a portfolio’s variability to an index is ridiculous, because it is impossible to beat the index without variability.

It is hard to think about 1981, my first full year in the investment business. Three-month Treasury bills were paying 18%, longer-term Treasury bonds yielded 15% to maturity and cheap stocks got 20% cheaper. In the summer of 1981, we saw a stock market decline from an already depressed market trading at eight-times after-tax profits down closer to six times. Participation in the stock market was down to 13.2% of U.S. household financial assets at the market bottom in 1982.

All major financial euphoria episodes hold aspects in common. Among our favorite books on investing is John Kenneth Galbraith’s A Short History of Financial Euphoria. More than any other economist, we admire his understanding of the connection between the securities markets and the economy.

The first time I read Forbes magazine was in 1980 as a brokerage trainee in New York City. I was fascinated by the company stories and the way the top investment disciplines were analyzed. In the 100th Anniversary Issue—published in September 2017—over 100 successful business and investment people wrote a short essay. We would like to zero in on one of these essays from Steve Case, the former Chairman/CEO/Co-Founder of America Online, Inc. (AOL).

In the Bible, Jesus arrives to help his friend Lazarus a few days after he had already died. His friends Mary and Martha were very disappointed because they thought all hope was lost. As the story goes, Jesus raised Lazarus from the dead. We bring this up because of a recent blog post at The Wall Street Journal from Wesley Gray of Alpha Architect. He asked the question, “Is Value Investing Dead?”

What should long-duration common stock owners like us do with the news of the horrific flood in Texas, the Category 5 hurricane in the Caribbean, the heightened tensions created by North Korea’s Dictator, Kim Jong-un, and the 8.1 magnitude earthquake in Southern Mexico? What is wise behavior in a more volatile stock market environment created by outside events? More than 30 years in the industry have taught us that outside events come and go, but patience matters. Just look at the similarities with Billy Joel’s 1989 hit “We Didn’t Start the Fire.” The song named 100 major people, political and economic events in the first 40 years of his life. As you can see, it is interesting how the same subjects continue to pop up in the 38 years since the song hit the top of the Billboard charts.

Forbes article of July 1974 profiled John Templeton, and highlighted some of the wisdom he implemented in his investment process. The article touched on his discipline of consistently praying to God “for wisdom and clear thinking” at the start of each directors meeting for the Templeton Growth Fund. John Templeton noted that even with prayer they still “make hundreds of mistakes, but we don’t seem to make as many as others.” In the article, Templeton also advised that the “ninety-nine percent of investors shouldn’t try to get rich too quickly; it’s too risky.” He advised, “Try to get rich slowly.” Sir John Templeton is on nearly every short list showcasing the most successful investors of all time, and certainly held in high esteem among value and contrarian managers like us.

During the most-recent Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meeting, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger re-iterated a point during the question and answer portion that has stuck with us. We feel compelled to share what we learned.

At the end of my freshman year in college (1977), my brother-in-law’s twin brother called me to ask if I wanted to go to the sixth game of the NBA Finals in Portland. I was a huge Trailblazer fan and was thrilled to sit in the top row of Memorial Coliseum, which held 12,665 fans. Not only was it an unbelievable experience for a lifelong fan (the Blazer’s won), but it was even more powerful because professional basketball was “the only game in town.” No other major professional sport (football, basketball, baseball) existed in Portland in 1977 and there is only one in town today.

Like a good attorney, we rarely ask a question for which we don’t have the answer. In the case of looking at sentiment in the economy and in the stock market, we like watching to get a feel for what our professional and individual investor clients are going through to see if it matches what we are hearing and seeing. The bifurcation in the economic sentiment surveys is that sentiment and confidence in economic growth are high, but those enthusiasms have yet to show up in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.