Category: Missives

At Smead Capital Management, our fourth criterion for stock selection is the generation of high levels of free cash flow. To us, long duration common stock ownership is very similar to owning an entire business. In our opinion, the free cash flow represents the money the owner receives which does not have to be plowed back into the business to perpetuate its success. In effect, it is the “real” and measurable wealth creation of the business.

In his 1980 book, Contrarian Investment Strategy, David Dreman opens with an analogy comparing the stock market to a casino with two distinct sides. The “red” room has lots of action and an occasional player striking it rich quickly. In effect, you become royal. Unfortunately, most of the players leave without the money with which they entered, because the house has the odds stacked heavily in its favor. The other side, the “green” room, was very quiet with numerous players slowly stacking up a large pile of chips and most of the players winning. The odds were stacked in their favor against the house, but nobody ever ordained them to get rich quickly.

Malcolm Gladwell is a fantastic writer and his new book, David and Goliath, got us thinking about his current thesis: David as a poster child for underdogs is a mistake. Gladwell contends that David had significant advantages over Goliath. In true Gladwellian form, he incorporates a myriad of disciplines to defend his thesis. And in true Smeadwellian fashion, we would like to add stock picking to the list of disciplines that strengthen Gladwell’s argument.

A venerable sage once said, “The markets do whatever they have to do to frustrate the most people.” For the long-duration investor, this means that you need to look at what people are invested in to determine where the frustration will come from. Thanks to the Associated Press, we know what the masses have done with their investments in the last five years: