From Blessed to Fail to Doomed to Succeed

William Smead
Chief Executive Officer
Chief Investment Officer





Dear Clients and Prospective Clients:

 
Today, an owner of good quality United States based common stocks is doomed to succeed over the next ten years. They are doomed because of this psychologically difficult environment’s affect on stock prices. Stocks are low. Prices compared to earnings are low. Yesterday there were 1978 New York Stock Exchange listed stocks that made a 52-week low. A big number for a single trading day over the last ten years was 600. We are lonely optimists. Jim Cramer, who has been pushing momentum stocks on T.V. for years, is telling people to sell the very same stocks he touted a year ago. Buy low, own low and hold a long time has always succeeded in the past.

We believe we will succeed over the next ten years because the quality and financial strength of our companies leads them to survival and survival leads to prosperity. The number one damager of long-term profitability is competition. How many new drug companies are being funded by the IPO’s of Common Stock? How many phone and cable companies? How many brand-name retailers are appearing on the seen? How many new asset custodians and money managers? How many software or technology consulting firms are debuting? The answer is nearly zero and in fact the opposite is happening! Our companies are seeing their competitors decline or disappear in direct industry competition and investment alternatives are dropping like flies. How about those hot commodities and commodity-related stocks? How about those emerging international stock markets? How about those glamour tech stocks?

Is the population of the world shrinking? In the U.S. we are delivering the most babies (4.3 million last year) since the height of the baby boom in 1957. China and India should create massive new markets for pharmaceuticals, entertainment, software, consulting and money management/custodianship. More customers and fewer competitors, sounds like a dream come true.

History is on our side! U.S. investors were doomed to succeed in 1932, 1942, 1974, 1982 and 1990. They were blessed to fail in 1929, 1966 and 1999.

We have no idea when this panic hits bottom. However, if you can survive this, we believe you are doomed to succeed!

Warmest regards,

William Smead

 

We Advise Investors

Sign up to get our advice sent straight to your inbox.

Recent Missives

A “Casino” Stock Market

There is a big difference between betting on something and investing in meritorious companies with long holding periods. Although we are no longer shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett shared some wisdom with...

⟶ Keep Reading

Barron’s: Bill Smead on GameStop’s bid for the eBay

GameStop Is Chasing a Meme-Stock Sequel. Nobody Is Buying It This Time. By Martin Baccardax For more information go to www.barrons.com. Stocks mentioned: EBAY The information contained in this article […]

⟶ Keep Reading

Fox Business: Bill Smead on Stocks vs GDP

  Stocks vs GDP: Why this level has Wall Street watching closely   Hosted by Cheryl Casone For more information go to Stocks vs GDP: Why this level has Wall […]

⟶ Keep Reading

Bloomberg: Bill Smead on GameStop’s Bid to Take Over eBay

EBay Investor Skeptical That GameStop Can Make Good on Acquisition Offer By Spencer Soper For more information go to www.bloomberg.com. Stocks mentioned: EBAY The information contained in this article represents […]

⟶ Keep Reading

Marketwatch.com: Bill Smead on Market Mania and GameStop’s Bid on eBay

GameStop launches a $56 billion bid for eBay — but the math isn’t working out. By Christine Ji Stocks mentioned: EBAY For more information go to www.marketwatch.com. The information contained […]

⟶ Keep Reading

Reuters: Bill Smead on Cutting Medicare Advantage Benefits

  Medicare Advantage health plans may cut extra benefits in 2027 By Amina Niasse For more information go to reuters.com. The information contained in this tv appearance represents SCM’s opinions, […]

⟶ Keep Reading

We Advise Investors

Sign up to get our advice sent straight to your inbox.

US INVESTORS

Individual Investors

OR

Financial Advisors, Family Offices,
and Institutional Investors

OR

NON-US INVESTORS

Individual Investors

OR

Financial Advisors, Family Offices,
and Institutional Investors

OR

Scroll to Top