William Smead
Chief Executive Officer
Chief Investment Officer

Subscribe to the Missives Podcast
Click here to listen to this Missive

Dear Clients and Prospective Clients:

In prior missives, we at Smead Capital Management have shared with you that there is a large group of money managers and investors who are counted as bullish, but are actually bearish. These investors own the reflation trade or what we like to refer to as “Peak Oil Mini-Me”. Their thesis says that the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury are flooding the world with dollars and “printing” money and the only way to take advantage of those facts is to be long oil, gold and other commodities. The current market correction is all about them and the truth behind their thesis.

We believe the truth is that if all that the government is doing causes a rapid improvement in the economy and quickly leads to very high levels of inflation, we’ve got even bigger problems later on to deal with. We sincerely believe these “Long Bears” are wrong. Their frustration is causing a significant and temporary pullback in the S&P 500 Index. We believe that the U.S. Economy will begin a long slow growth phase beginning in the fourth quarter of this year (Oct. 1-Dec. 31). A year ago the economy went into a coma in September. We have since reset our spending 10% lower than the prior year. This spending cut is much deeper than 10% appears because it is about half of the discretionary spending we do each month. The recovery doesn’t occur because of what the government does. Growth occurs because the economic benchmark has been lowered and economic activity is compared to how you were doing in the same quarter of the prior year.

The Federal Reserve’s actions and the government stimulus doesn’t scare us because of the banks need to replenish their capital. They will return to a good business of lending money to credit worthy people with sizeable down payments. A recent study by Stan Liebowitz in the Wall Street Journal has shown that the number one correlation to foreclosure was the lack of any down payment.

The analysis indicates that, by far, the most important factor related to foreclosures is the extent to which the homeowner now has or ever had positive equity in a home. The accompanying figure shows how important negative equity or a low Loan-To-Value ratio is in explaining foreclosures (homes in foreclosure during December of 2008 generally entered foreclosure in the second half of 2008). A simple statistic can help make the point: although only 12% of homes had negative equity, they comprised 47% of all foreclosures.

This return to normal banking will take three to five years. At the same time, individual households and businesses are going to be very hesitant for years and maybe decades to borrow money. Add it all up and you quickly decide that we will not recover by returning to the foolish lending and borrowing of the last ten years. In our minds this means that we won’t reflate the economy. If you don’t reflate the economy, the case for oil, gold and commodities go right out the window and will look foolish; especially after last year’s oil and commodity bubble burst. History shows that bubble markets are dead money for a long time after breaking, just look at the Nasdaq today compared to the peak of the tech bubble in early 2000.

So who wins in this scenario? The winners will be the “Long Bulls”. The “Long Bulls” believe that all the fear of the last 18 months has left the prices of many of the world’s best companies far below their intrinsic value. A long and slow economic recovery with an accommodative Federal Reserve could lay the groundwork for businesses with strong balance sheets and wide moats to gain market share. This would allow them to grow nicely from the “reset” of consumer spending levels. It could be a long period without excesses, which are usually created by too much leverage. As the debts of individuals and the government are paid back, an automatic restraint is put on the economy keeping it from overheating. Single-digit earnings growth in a slow economic era could produce price-to-earnings expansion. We believe large quality company shares will be the place to be for the next five to seven years.

Best Wishes,

William Smead

The information contained in this missive represents SCM’s opinions, and should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The securities identified and described in this missive do not represent all of the securities purchased or recommended for our clients. It should not be assumed that investing in these securities was or will be profitable. A list of all recommendations made by Smead Capital Management with in the past twelve month period is available upon request.

We Advise Investors

Sign up to get our advice sent straight to your inbox.

Recent Missives

CNBC Power Lunch: Cole Smead on Growth vs. Value

February 4, 2025

  Meta is too high of a risk for value, says Smead Capital CEO Cole Smead For more information go to www.cnbc.com. The information contained in this tv appearance represents […]

⟶ Keep Reading

Index Mania: On Top of the World

January 30, 2025

[...]. The great Vanguard Windsor manager John Neff used to say, “When you want to brag about a stock, you ought to sell it.” What has been happening lately in our interactions with...

⟶ Keep Reading

Financial Times: Cole Smead, CFA on US Oil Spending

January 24, 2025

Wall Street will stymie Donald Trump’s US oil surge plan, say shale bosses By Amanda Chu and Jamie Smyth For more information go to www.ft.com. Stocks mentioned: CVE, OXY The […]

⟶ Keep Reading

Bursting the Complacency Bubble

January 23, 2025

The phrase "majoring in the minor" refers to focusing excessively on trivial details while neglecting more important aspects of a situation. This analytical flaw is especially prevalent in today’s investment environment. Quarterly earnings...

⟶ Keep Reading

Barron’s: Cole Smead on Trump’s Canadian Tariff Threat

January 22, 2025

Trump’s Canadian Tariff Threat Scrambles Oil Stocks. Why Some See Opportunity. By Avi Salzman For more information go to www.barrons.com. The information contained in this article represents SCM’s opinions, and […]

⟶ Keep Reading

The Wall Street Journal: Cole Smead, CFA on “drill, baby, drill”

January 22, 2025

How a Trump Trade War Puts Cheap Oil From Canada at Risk by David Uberti For more information go to www.wsj.com. The information contained in this article represents SCM’s opinions, […]

⟶ Keep Reading

We Advise Investors

Sign up to get our advice sent straight to your inbox.

US INVESTORS

Individual Investors

OR

Financial Advisors, Family Offices,
and Institutional Investors

OR

NON-US INVESTORS

Individual Investors

OR

Financial Advisors, Family Offices,
and Institutional Investors

OR

Scroll to Top