William Smead
Chief Executive Officer
Chief Investment OfficerÂ
Investor’s Intelligence is a service founded in 1963 to measure the psychology of the U.S. stock market through the eyes of investment newsletter writers (many of whom manage money themselves). They ask the letter writers if they are bullish or bearish or looking for a short-term downward correction in prices. I have followed this survey for 28 years. Whenever it gets to extremes, it is a useful tool. Tuesday’s survey showed 50% of the newsletter writers are bearish. The last time we hit 50% bears was on January 6 of 1995 at 50.9%. A reading a few weeks ago of 27% bulls was the lowest bullish reading since July 1st of 1994 at 23.9%. There is no guarantee of a repeat, but the last time it hit 50% bearish preceded a four-year stretch (1995-1998) which was mega fun and profitable for U.S. stock investors.This is just a reminder of how powerful the “Next Great U.S. Stock Market” could be. Thank you for the patience and trust.
Warmest regards,
William Smead
