Category: Missives

Who is on the Cover

William Smead Chief Executive Officer Chief Investment Officer      Dear Clients and Prospective Clients:  Almost two years ago, the Arizona Republic did a feature story on their cover about a talented and successful residential real estate agent located in Paradise Valley, Arizona. He was

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No Believers

William Smead Chief Executive Officer Chief Investment Officer      Dear Clients and Prospective Clients: The day before the 1980 Presidential Election was 28 years ago today. Ronald Reagan was ahead in the polls and the stock market had risen over 25% in the six

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SCM Missive | October 22nd, 2008

William Smead Chief Executive Officer Chief Investment Officer      Dear Clients and Prospective Clients:  1. What have U.S. stock markets which fell 35% or more done in the few months after plunging to a violent low? Answer: There are two possibilities which have occurred.

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SCM Missive | October 17th, 2008

William Smead Chief Executive Officer Chief Investment Officer  Dear Clients and Prospective Clients:I have been in the investment business 28 years and Warren Buffett has made a stock market prognostication only two prior times (near the bottom in 1982 and near the top in 1999).

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SCM Missive | October 16th, 2008

William Smead Chief Executive Officer Chief Investment Officer Dear Clients and Prospective Clients: Investors are divorcing their stocks. Here is the list of reasons they seek to dissolve their relationship with America’s best companies. We are in a deep recession which could last one to

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SCM Missive | October 14th, 2008

William Smead Chief Executive Officer Chief Investment Officer  Dear Clients and Prospective Clients:The stock market rallied in a powerful way yesterday and is begging everyone to take a position on up or down in the near term. I’d rather help us think straight. We own

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From Blessed to Fail to Doomed to Succeed

William Smead Chief Executive Officer Chief Investment Officer Dear Clients and Prospective Clients:   Today, an owner of good quality United States based common stocks is doomed to succeed over the next ten years. They are doomed because of this psychologically difficult environment’s affect on

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SCM Missive | September 15th, 2008

William Smead Chief Executive Officer Chief Investment Officer  Dear Clients and Prospective Clients:In an 11-month stretch of 1978-79, Oil nearly tripled in price to $34 per barrel, inflation and interest rates skyrocketed and the U.S. Embassy in Iran was taken over by Shiite Fundamentalists for

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SCM Missive | August 1st, 2008

William Smead Chief Executive Officer Chief Investment Officer  Investor’s Intelligence is a service founded in 1963 to measure the psychology of the U.S. stock market through the eyes of investment newsletter writers (many of whom manage money themselves). They ask the letter writers if they

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SCM Missive | July 17th, 2008

William Smead Chief Executive Officer Chief Investment Officer   Oil and natural gas prices appear to be beginning to unwind. If they unwind, the investment landscape could change on a dime. Barron’s had a chart in it this week which showed five times in the

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