Category: Quarterly Newsletters

[…] At this moment we are doubling down on our eight criteria for common stock selection and the bull market in commodities/land which broke out during the pandemic. What this means is that we are doing what we always try to do and that means that we expect to perform well going forward. […]

Corona’s 1995 classic “The Rhythm of the Night” rings in our ears as we stare at the circumstances that are likely to expose the darkness of the 2020’s. We saw the light in the 2010’s and will see the night in the 2020’s. Our aim for this letter is to give an understanding to investors of the rhythm of what we are likely to see in the road ahead. […]

As we’ve hit the halftime mark for the investment year 2022, we are faced with a daunting two-headed monster. One head is the first full year of unwinding what Charlie Munger called, “the biggest financial euphoria episode in his career, because of the totality of it.” The second head is what we call “wolverine inflation,” which is mean and leaves a stench. This combination is powerful and, in many ways, unprecedented. How do we navigate a stock market which is dealing with a two-headed monster? […]

Depending on your age, the bull market in stocks started in 1982, with stocks trading at six-times earnings and the U.S. Treasury Bonds paying 15% interest, or in 2009 at the bottom of the financial crisis. Either way, the combination of the Federal Reserve Board’s liquidity and the popularity/stock market domination of technology stocks have entered us into what we will call “The Twilight Zone.” […]

Moving forward beyond the pandemic of 2020, the theme the world woke up to is that people want more…more home, more land, more entertainment, more goods. We learned that more is a scarce good today. The best phrase for capturing the mind of consumers today is what a partner of ours mentioned to us: The Race For Space. […]

There are three pillars of investing for us at Smead Capital Management. First, we must know the history of the stock market. Second, we must understand the mathematics of the stock market. Third, we must understand the psychology of the stock market. As we enter the year 2022, we believe the S&P 500 Index and the oil/gas Industry are at polar extremes on all three pillars. […]

Halfway through the year 2021, we must be reminded to “not confuse brains with a bull market.” These are the words we were taught back in the 1980’s. When all boats float, don’t think you are a genius because your boat floated. Investors in the S&P 500 Index, mega-cap tech stocks, momentum disruption stocks and a wide variety of success stories the last five years floated. The former kings of the stock market (active stock pickers) were pronounced dead. Goodbye Warren Buffett, John Templeton, Peter Lynch and all the others who were declared kings of stock picking.

Halfway through the year 2021, we must be reminded to “not confuse brains with a bull market.” These are the words we were taught back in the 1980’s. When all boats float, don’t think you are a genius because your boat floated. Investors in the S&P 500 Index, mega-cap tech stocks, momentum disruption stocks and a wide variety of success stories the last five years floated. The former kings of the stock market (active stock pickers) were pronounced dead. Goodbye Warren Buffett, John Templeton, Peter Lynch and all the others who were declared kings of stock picking.

Our outlook for 2021 is formed by the need to get away from the crowd and to expect some very stormy weather in the U.S. stock market. We are not afraid of drowning. Therefore, we will review the circumstances at the bottom of the market in 2009 with today’s market to see where the crowd is and where we need to go to avoid the coming storm.

You are probably aware that we do a great deal of reading, writing and watching at Smead Capital Management. We recently read Peter Doran’s book, Breaking Rockefeller, which is a fabulous economic history of the world from 1840-1920 and focuses on how the monopoly created by John D. Rockefeller was broken from 1890-1910. We also watched a documentary called, “The Social Dilemma,” which explains, through the eyes of some of the social media creators, how incredibly damaging the monopolies, created by internet technology, are to society.